Last Updated on: 18/04/2024
TODAY: Thursday, 18th April, 2024
USD/INR:
Dollar has pulled back from the recent tear, with the Dollar Index now trading below 106. While the overarching trend remains firm, Dollar is taking a breather after the sharp appreciation move driven by rate expectations and geopolitical concerns. Dollar Index is at 105.90, with EUR at 1.0675, GBP at 1.2465 and JPY at 154.05. US 10y though is indicating higher rates as rate-cut expectations continue to whiter away witch each data and Fed comment.
Powell poured cold water on rate cut expectations yet again, cautioning on inflation in his speech. Iran-Israel skirmish has not seen a significant escalation as of now, giving markets some breathing room. Equities have stabilized and Asian markets have shrugged off negativity to open in the green. US indices closed in the Red overnight, and NASDAQ was down 1%+. The index futures are positive, and Indian indices are expected to open in green.
INR is officially at a new all-time high now but is not free enough to reflect the entirety of the global Dollar strength. The RBI should also be closely watching the move in JPY, despite the recent change to their monetary policy. JPY weakness is a headwind for the Rupee, both from REER perspective and from the standpoint of global market stability. RBI might now be willing to let Rupee find its way, if global situation demands, but in a very gradual fashion.
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:
USD:
The dollar on Wednesday fell for the first time in six days, as investors consolidated gains after Federal Reserve officials repeated the interest rate-cutting cycle is on hold pending new economic data, while the monetary easing outlook for other major central banks remained unchanged.
The greenback also dropped from 5-1/2-month highs hit on Tuesday. The dollar index was last down 0.4% at 105.89. So far this year, the index has gained about 4.7%.
Top U.S. central bank officials, including Powell on Tuesday, have provided little indication into when rates may be cut, saying instead that monetary policy needs to be restrictive for longer.
Recent data showed the U.S. economy remains stronger than expected, leading investors to reduce their bets on future rate cuts. This was again evident in the Fed's latest so-called "Beige Book" released on Wednesday. The report indicated U.S. economic activity expanded slightly from late February through early April and companies signaled they expect inflation pressures to hold steady.
Meanwhile, risks of a broadening Middle East conflict have added to the dollar's safe-haven appeal in the short term.
After last week's hotter-than-expected reading of U.S. consumer prices, the market has reduced the number of quarter-point rate cuts expected by the Fed this year to less than two. The first is now seen in September, later than a prior June, according to LSEG's rate app.
A more hawkish view from the Fed has led Treasury yields to move higher and strengthened the dollar's outlook.
GBP:
GBP/USD is clinging to recovery gains above 1.2450 in European trading on Thursday. The pair stays supported by a sustained US Dollar weakness alongside the US Treasury bond yields. Risk appetite also underpins the higher-yielding currency pair. ahead of mid-tier US data and Fedspeak.
GBP/USD gained traction in the early European session on Wednesday following the stronger-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the UK but struggled to gather bullish momentum. After closing the day marginally higher, the pair seems to have gone into a consolidation phase below 1.2500 on Thursday.
Commenting on the inflation report, Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Greene said on Wednesday that the data was encouraging but added that she is worried about what an energy price shock and other supply side shocks might do to inflation expectations.
Meanwhile, retreating US Treasury bond yields made it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to gather strength and allowed GBP/USD to stay in positive territory in the American session midweek.
Early Thursday, the positive shift seen in risk mood is helping GBP/USD hold its ground. In case Wall Street's main indexes open in positive territory and continue to stretch higher, the USD could remain under bearish pressure in the second half of the day.
The US economic docket will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. Markets expect the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits to rise to 215,000 from 211,000 in the previous week. A reading close to 200,000 could help the USD stay resilient against its peers and limit GBP/USD's upside.
EUR:
EUR/USD is consolidating its recovery below 1.0700 in the European session on Thursday. The US Dollar holds its corrective decline amid improving market mood, despite looming Middle East geopolitical risks. Speeches from ECB and Fed officials remain on tap.
EUR/USD gained traction and closed in positive territory on Wednesday, snapping a six-day losing streak. The pair continues to inch higher toward 1.0700 in the European session on Thursday and the near-term technical outlook highlights a buildup of recovery momentum.
The renewed US Dollar (USD) weakness helped EUR/USD stage a decisive rebound midweek. In the absence of high-tier data releases, retreating US Treasury bond yields weighed on the USD.
Later in the session, the US economic docket will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. Investors expect the number of firs-time applications for unemployment benefits to rise to 215,000 in the week ending April 13 from 211,000. A reading close to 220,000 could put additional weight on the USD's shoulders.
In the meantime, US stock index futures trade in positive territory in the European session. A bullish opening in Wall Street could help EUR/USD preserve its recovery momentum.
Markets remain optimistic about an avoidance of a deepening Iran-Israel conflict, with the UK, the EU and the US looking to widen sanctions against Iran.
Gold
Gold price rebounds to $2,380 in Thursday’s European session after posting losses on Wednesday. The precious metal holds gains amid fears that Middle East tensions could worsen and spread beyond Gaza if Israel responds brutally to Iran.
Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds to $2,380 in Thursday’s European session after posting losses on Wednesday. The precious metal holds gains amid fears that Middle East tensions could worsen and spread beyond Gaza if Israel responds brutally to Iran.
According to The Times, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has clarified that “their state will do everything necessary to defend itself,” according to The Times. The comments from PM Netanyahu came after his conversation with foreign ministers from the United Kingdom and Germany.
The recovery in Gold is also driven by a decline in US Treasury yields, which are influenced by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook. 10-year US bond yields edge down to 4.57% from a more than five-month high of 4.70%. Lower yields on interest-bearing assets diminish the cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Gold.
USD/INR as on 16th April, 2024
Currency
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
USD/INR
83.51
83.5475
83.47
83.5350
Forward premium (%) as on 16th April , 2024
Periods
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
12 Month
Premium
0.95/1.09
1.09/1.14
1.28/1.30
1.63/1.64
USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)
(Updated as on 18th April, 2024, @ 09.00am)
Cash/Tom: 0.10/0.75 Cash/Spot: 0.35/2.25
Tom/Spot: 0.25/1.50 Spot/Next: 0.10/0.25
Cash Date: 18th April 2024
Tom Date: 19th April 2024
Spot Date: 20th April 2024
Outlook for the day 18th April, 2024
Rupee expected to trade in range of 83.40-83.60
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (17th April, 2024)
CURRENCY
GBP
1.2424
1.2481
1.2414
1.2446
EUR
1.0619
1.0679
1.0604
1.0671
AUD
0.6402
0.6446
0.6398
0.6434
JPY
154.71
154.74
154.15
154.38
CHF
0.9128
0.9132
0.9091
0.9106
XAU
2382.70
2395.39
2354.29
2360.80
Foreign Currencies
Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) on 17th April, 2024
USD/INR: 83.54FXIR]
Against
USD
INR
1 EUR =
1.0641
88.8949
1 GBP =
1.2461
104.099
100 JPY =
154.59
54.0397
1 AUD =
0.6425
53.6745
1 CHF =
0.9113
91.6712
Precious Metals
Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) as on 17th April, 2024
Gold ($/oz)
2393.75
Silver ($/oz)
28.47
Stock Indices
Index Close
16th April, 2024
17th April, 2024
BSE Sensex
73399.78
72943.68
NSE Nifty
22272.50
22147.90
Dow Jones
37735.11
37753.31
NASDAQ
15885.02
15683.37
Major Economic Data Releases for the Day
Date
Region
Time (IST)
Description
18.04.2024
07.00AM
Employment Change
GDP m/m
Unemployment Rate
06.00AM
Unemployment Claims
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