TODAY: MONDAY, 13^th May, 2024

USD/INR:

INR likely to open around 83.50

Dollar is stable and markets  are meandering, ahead of the US inflation this week. Dollar index is at 105.35, with 1.0765, GBP at 1.2520 and JPY at 155.90. US equities closed in the green on Friday. Indian equities managed a positive close on Friday after days of negative hits. 

The CPI is slated on Wednesday. In addition to the CPI, markers have to contend with the PPI, retail sales and Powell’s speech this week. INR will remain under pressure until the election results, but any CPI positivity will certainly help.

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:

USD:

GBP:

GBP/USD edges higher to near 1.2520 during the Asian session on Monday, possibly due to improved risk appetite. The Pound Sterling (GBP) was bolstered by releasing higher-than-expected UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures on Friday. The UK economy expanded by 0.6% in Q1, surpassing forecasts and signaling the end of the nation's brief recession. This economic rebound represented the most robust growth seen in over two years.

However, the British Pound faced a challenge following dovish remarks from Huw Pill, Chief Economist at the Bank of England (BoE). Pill echoed the sentiment of the majority of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), who opted to maintain interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday. Yet, he subsequently expressed a growing belief that rate cuts could be imminent.

The market participants are likely to await the employment data from the United Kingdom (UK) on Tuesday with expectations of Claimant Count Change showing an increase in the number of those claiming jobless benefits in April. Additionally, the ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) is expected to show an increase in number of unemployed workers in the UK.

This week, investors in the United States (US) are poised to focus on key economic indicators for potential market drivers, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Retail Sales.

EUR:

The EUR/USD pair remains flat around 1.0770 on Monday during the early European trading hours. The pair struggles to find a clear direction ahead of the key US events this week. The US April Producer Price Index (PPI) will be due on Tuesday, and the final reading of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday. 

Technically, EUR/USD remains stuck within a descending trend channel since mid-December 2023. The major pair keeps the bearish vibe unchanged as it is below the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. Nonetheless, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands in bullish territory around 54.5, suggesting that further upside cannot be ruled out. 

The crucial upside barrier for EUR/USD will emerge near the 100-day EMA and the upper boundary of the descending trend channel in the 1.0790–1.0800 zone. A bullish breakout above the latter will see a rally to a high of April 9 at 1.0885. Further north, the next hurdle is seen near a high of March 21 at 1.0943, en route to a high of March 8 at 1.0981, and finally the 1.1000 psychological level.  

Gold

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a negative note on Monday during the Asian session. The hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and growing speculation that the Fed might delay its easing plans have boosted the Greenback and dragged the USD-denominated gold lower. However, signs of economic weakness and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to support precious metals in the near term.

Gold traders will keep an eye on the Fed’s Jefferson and Mester speeches on Monday. Later this week, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Retail Sales will be in the spotlight. In case of stronger-than-expected economic data, this might dampen the hope for a Fed rate cut and exert some selling pressure on the XAU/USD

USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)

(Updated as on 13^th May 2024, @ 09.00am)

 Cash/Tom:    0.10/0.70                  Cash/Spot: 0.20/1.40

 Tom/Spot:     0.10/0.70                  Spot/Next:  0.10/0.70

Cash Date:   13^th May   2024

Tom Date:     14^th May   2024

Spot Date:    15^th May   2024

Outlook for the day 13^th May 2024

Rupee expected to trade in range of 83.40-83.60

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (10^th May, 2024)

Foreign Currencies

Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) on 10^th May, 2024

Precious Metals

Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) as on 10^th May, 2024

Stock Indices

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