TODAY Monday, 22^nd September , 2025

USD/INR:

The Indian rupee is poised for a weaker open on Monday, pressured by a post-Federal Reserve decision dollar rally and soft risk sentiment denting demand for the currency.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 88.18 to 88.22 range versus the U.S. dollar, compared with 88.09 in the previous session.

The rupee saw volatile moves last week amid Fed's decision, lingering concerns over hefty U.S. tariffs and modest debt inflows. The currency traded in a 87.70 to 88.30 band through the week.

The dollar/rupee's topside will continue to meet central bank resistance, while the downside remains supported by underlying demand, he said.

The dollar index inched up to 97.80 in Asian trading, extending its post-Fed climb. The index had slipped to 96.22 immediately after Wednesday's decision before staging a steady rally.

Analysts attribute the move to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious tone on rates, the run higher in U.S. yields and unwinding of short dollar positions. The 10-year U.S. yield, which briefly slipped below 4% on the day of the Fed decision, was last at 4.14%.

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:

USD:

GBP/USD:

The British Pound (GBP) is under heavy pressure from the 'King Dollar' on Friday, down 0.52% even though the docket in the US is absent, with just Federal Reserve (Fed) officials crossing the newswires. UK data, although positive, failed to underpin Sterling in Retail Sales. GBP/USD is trading at 1.3482.

Market mood remains mixed amid a quad witching options expiring on Friday, which could trigger volatility in US equity markets. The US Dollar has recovered after falling to three-year lows in the aftermath of the Fed’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

EUR/USD:

EUR/USD continues its losing streak for the fourth consecutive session, trading around 1.1730 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) remains stronger after the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered an expected rate cut last week but indicated no rush to lower borrowing costs quickly in the coming months. Traders will likely observe the Eurozone Consumer Confidence and Fedspeak later in the day.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the post-meeting press conference that growing signs of weakness in the labor market to explain why officials decided it was time to cut rates after holding them steady since December amid concerns over tariff-driven inflation. Moreover, Powell also said that he doesn't feel the need to move quickly on rates and that the Fed is in a meeting-by-meeting situation regarding the outlook for interest rates. The Fed's rate projection, or the so-called "dot plot," showed a forecast of two more rate cuts this year.

Gold:

Gold clocks decent gains, revisiting the $3,670 region per troy ounce at the end of the week. In the meantime, market participants continue to evaluate solid chances of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the next few months. At the same time, the precious metal manages to reverse two consecutive daily declines.

The overnight acceptance below the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) – for the first time since August 22 – favors the XAU/USD bears. The subsequent fall, however, stalls near a bullish flag pattern breakpoint, around the $3,628 region. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful decline.

In the meantime, a further move up beyond the $3,660 area might confront some resistance near the $3,673-3,675 zone, above which the Gold price could climb back to the $3,700 neighborhood. Some follow-through buying beyond the $3,707 region, or the all-time peak, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders.

On the flip side, the $3,628-3,626 resistance-turned-support, or the weekly trough, could act as an immediate support ahead of the $3,600 mark. A convincing break below the latter could drag the Gold price to the $3,563-3,562 support en route to the $3,511-3,510 region. The said area is likely to act as a strong base for the XAU/USD pair.

USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)

(Updated as on 19^th  September , 2025 @ 09.00am)

 Cash/Tom:   0.10/1.00         Cash/Spot:0.20/2.00

 Tom/Spot:   0.10/1.00           Spot/Next: 0.10/1.00

Cash Date:    22.09.2025

Tom Date:      23.09.2025

Spot Date:     24.09.2025

Outlook for the day 22^nd September: Rupee expected to trade in range of 88.05 to 88.35

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (19^thSeptember, 2025)

Foreign Currencies

Updated:17:30 hrs.(12:00 GMT) on 19^th  September 2025

Precious Metals

Updated:17:30 hrs.(12:00 GMT) as on 19^th September 2025

Stock Indices

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