Last Updated on: 09/10/2025
TODAY, Thursday, 09th October, 2025
USD/INR:
A softer dollar may hand the Indian rupee a small boost at the open on Thursday, though traders say the Reserve Bank of India's steady hand remains the bigger driver.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee USDINR will open in the 88.74-88.76 range versus the U.S. dollar, up from 88.7975 on Wednesday.
The Indian currency has been trading in a narrow range near all-time lows, with the RBI’s persistent dollar sales helping to anchor volatility. Bankers expect the central bank to continue smoothing moves.
"Feels like we’re trading with a ceiling (on dollar/rupee) — the RBI’s running the show,” a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.
"Broadly, the RBI seems comfortable with a measured rupee drift. The only question is when they’ll step back and let it happen (let the rupee weaken more)."
The RBI’s persistent intervention has effectively crushed rupee volatility. The 10-day annualised realized volatility has fallen to multi-month lows, while the one-month implied has slipped close to its year-to-date trough.
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:
USD:
Most Asian currencies edged higher on Thursday as Federal Reserve meeting minutes reinforced expectations of interest rate cuts later this year, while the yen held near eight-month lows as investors scaled back bets on further Bank of Japan tightening.
The US Dollar Index fell 0.2% in Asia hours on Thursday after three consecutive sessions of gains. US Dollar Index Futures also traded 0.2% lower
The Fed’s September policy minutes revealed that a “substantial majority” of officials saw scope to lower borrowing costs again this year, though several policymakers warned against moving too aggressively given lingering inflation risks.
The minutes, released overnight, showed that some participants preferred to keep rates on hold until there was clearer evidence of easing price pressures and a firmer slowdown in the labour market. Others pointed to downside risks to growth, arguing that premature inaction could risk a sharper economic slowdown later.
A partial U.S. government shutdown has already delayed the release of key economic reports, including September employment and inflation data, depriving the Fed of critical inputs ahead of its next meeting.
GBP/USD:
GBP/USD turned lower again on Tuesday, falling back below 1.3450, extending a near-term consolidation zone as the pair grinds through chart paper near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Despite a notable lack of firm bullish momentum, selling pressure remains unable to crack the 1.3400 handle, keeping Cable hobbled in a volatile midrange.
Central bankers will dominate headline flows on Wednesday. A raft of Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will be making public appearances, as well as a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Huw Pill.
Wednesday’s key event will be the release of the Fed’s latest Meeting Minutes, due at 18:00 GMT. The Fed broke the seal on interest rate cuts at its latest rate call, and investors will be looking for signs that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is tilting toward more rate cuts through the remainder of the year.
As the US government shutdown rolls on, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be grappling with a lack of key official datasets as it makes interest rate decisions heading into the tail end of the calendar year. Barring any significant shocks in the data that remains available to the Fed, rate markets have locked in expectations of two follow-up interest rate cuts on October 29 and December 10.
EUR/USD:
The GBP/USD pair attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Thursday and moves away from a nearly two-week trough, around the 1.3370 area touched the previous day. Spot prices climb further beyond the 1.3400 mark in the last hour and, for now, seem to have snapped a two-day losing streak amid a broadly weaker US Dollar.
From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures near the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the downfall along a descending channel since the beginning of this month favor the GBP/USD bears. Furthermore, negative oscillators on 4-hour/daily charts suggest that any subsequent move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity and run the risk of fizzling out rather quickly.
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained strength above the 1.3465-1.3475 confluence hurdle – comprising the top end of the descending channel and the 100-period SMA – before positioning for further gains. Some follow-through buying beyond the 1.3500 psychological mark could lift the GBP/USD pair above the 1.3525-1.3530 supply zone, towards the next relevant barrier near the 1.3575-1.3580 area.
On the flip side, the 1.3370 area, representing the lower boundary of the downward sloping channel, might continue to protect the immediate downside, below which the GBP/USD pair could retest the 1.3330-1.3325 zone, or a nearly two-month low touched in September. The subsequent fall below the 1.3300 round figure will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for deeper losses.
Gold:
Gold attracts some dip-buyers in the vicinity of the $4,000 psychological mark, and has now reversed a major part of its modest Asian session losses. The growing acceptance that the US Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs two more times this year turns out to be a key factor that continues to act as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.
From a technical perspective, the Gold price shows resilience below a one-week-old ascending channel support and bounces off the vicinity of the $4,000 psychological mark. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained break and acceptance below the said handle before positioning for some meaningful corrective decline. The XAU/USD pair might then decline to the next relevant support near the $3,948-3,947 region before eventually dropping to the $3,900 round figure.
On the flip side, momentum back above the $4,035-4,036 region could lift the Gold price beyond the all-time peak, around the $4,059-4,060 area touched on Wednesday, towards testing the ascending channel resistance, currently around the $4,080 zone. Some follow-through buying, leading to a subsequent strength beyond the $4,100 mark, will be seen as a fresh trigger for the XAU/USD bulls and set the stage for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend.
USD/INR as on 08th October, 2025
Currency
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
USD/INR
88.78
88.81
88.72
88.79
Forward premium (%) as on 08th October , 2025
Periods
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
12 Month
Premium
1.99/2.10
2.01/2.06
2.14/2.16
2.23/2.24
USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)
(Updated as on 09th October 2025@ 09.00am)
Cash/Tom: 0.10/1.25 Cash/Spot:0.50/3.50
Tom/Spot: 0.50/2.50 Spot/Next: 0.10/1.25
Cash Date: 09.10.2025
Tom Date: 10.10.2025
Spot Date: 13.10.2025
Outlook for the day 08th October, 2025: Rupee expected to trade in range of 88.60 to 88.85
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (07th October 2025)
CURRENCY
GBP
1.3422
1.3438
1.3368
1.3404
EUR
1.1653
1.1661
1.1597
1.1626
AUD
0.6580
0.6589
0.6555
0.6585
JPY
151.90
152.99
151.73
152.68
CHF
0.798
0.8028
0.7974
0.8016
XAU
4059.05
3982.14
4037.90
Foreign Currencies
Updated:17:30 hrs.(12:00 GMT) on 08th October , 2025
USD/INR: 88.8025[FXIR]
Against
USD
INR
1 GBP =
1.3407
119.0575
1 EUR =
1.1627
103.2507
100 JPY =
152.69
58.1587
1 CHF =
0.8002
110.9754
1 AUD =
0.6571
58.3521
Precious Metals
Updated:17:30 hrs.(12:00 GMT) as on 08th October , 2025
Gold ($/oz)
4040.05
Silver ($/oz)
49.005
Stock Indices
Index Close
07th Oct
08th Oct
BSE Sensex
81787.48
81773.66
NSE Nifty
25108.30
25046.15
Dow Jones
46602.98
46601.78
NASDAQ
22788.36
Major Economic Data Releases for the Day 08.10.2025
Date
Time (IST)
Region
Description
No Major Data
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