Last Updated on: 08/10/2025
TODAY Wednesday, 08th October, 2025
USD/INR:
The Indian rupee may inch towards a record low at the open on Wednesday, bogged down by the dollar index's rally to a six-week high and weakness in Asia, prompting bets on another round of central bank intervention.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee USDINR will open in the 88.78-88.82 range versus the U.S. dollar, compared with Tuesday's close of 88.7725.
The rupee hit an all-time low of 88.80 last Tuesday. In the four sessions since then, the local unit has managed to avoid slipping to a new low, helped by active intervention by the Reserve Bank of India.
Bankers said the RBI has been selling dollars in the spot market while simultaneously conducting buy/sell swaps to offset the liquidity impact of its interventions. Thanks to the RBI, intraday volatility has shrunk, with the rupee confined to a range of less than 10 paisa so far this week.
The RBI is defending 88.80 "with size", a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. "However, the bids (on dollar/rupee) keep rolling. Today will be a stern test of how resolute it is in defending that level."
He reckons the opening ticks will be critical — how the dollar/rupee pair behaves in the first half hour could decide the day’s bias.
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:
USD:
The dollar’s safe-haven appeal has faded hard since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, with the greenback now marked down double digits. Morgan Stanley is bracing investors for even more pain ahead, warning that policy uncertainty and shifting global flows will keep the pressure on.
The dollar index was up 0.5% on Tuesday to 98.31, but down about 11% since Trump took office. Further pain is likely ahead, with Morgan Stanley forecasting the greenback to slump to 91 but mid-2026.
“Policy uncertainty will likely drive foreign investors to up their FX-hedging ratios, putting pressure on the dollar,” Morgan Stanley said in a recent note. Despite strong flows into U.S. assets and booming demand for Treasurys, the bank warns that rising risk premiums, a coming convergence in U.S. interest rates with peers, and renewed debate over the dollar’s status as the globe’s safety trade will cap any rebound in the months ahead.
Markets may feel “exuberant, although maybe not entirely irrational yet," with investors betting on positive shifts in growth, but the overall call is one of caution. Morgan Stanley highlights that “whether and how much risk premiums should be attached to US assets remains a debate reflected in cross-asset correlations,” as the risk-on mood obscures a more fundamental shift in market dynamics.
GBP/USD:
GBP/USD turned lower again on Tuesday, falling back below 1.3450, extending a near-term consolidation zone as the pair grinds through chart paper near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Despite a notable lack of firm bullish momentum, selling pressure remains unable to crack the 1.3400 handle, keeping Cable hobbled in a volatile midrange.
Central bankers will dominate headline flows on Wednesday. A raft of Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will be making public appearances, as well as a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Huw Pill.
Wednesday’s key event will be the release of the Fed’s latest Meeting Minutes, due at 18:00 GMT. The Fed broke the seal on interest rate cuts at its latest rate call, and investors will be looking for signs that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is tilting toward more rate cuts through the remainder of the year.
As the US government shutdown rolls on, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be grappling with a lack of key official datasets as it makes interest rate decisions heading into the tail end of the calendar year. Barring any significant shocks in the data that remains available to the Fed, rate markets have locked in expectations of two follow-up interest rate cuts on October 29 and December 10.
EUR/USD:
The EUR/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 1.1620 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) amid fears of a political crisis in France. The FOMC Minutes will take center stage later on Wednesday.
The shared currency remains under pressure following the resignation of France's Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu on Monday. France is now likely to miss a deadline to present its 2026 budget bill, meaning lawmakers will need to pass emergency stopgap legislation to authorize spending from January 1 until a full budget is approved.
Gold:
Gold adds to the ongoing move higher and trades at shouting distance from the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce, hitting at the same time an all-time high.The uncertainty surrounding the US government shutdown, political instability in France, and Japan's prospective pro-stimulus agenda contribute to the precious metal’s strength.
The overnight breakout through the $3,900 mark was seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and backs the case for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend for the Gold price. However, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is holding well above the 70 mark and points to extremely overbought conditions. This makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for any further gains.
Meanwhile, any corrective slide below the $3,950 area could be seen as a buying opportunity and is likely to remain limited near the $3,900 round figure. The latter nears the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), which, if broken, might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the next relevant support near the $3,865-3,863 area. The downfall could extend further towards testing sub-$3,800 levels touched last Tuesday, which should act as a strong near-term base and key pivotal point.
USD/INR as on 07th October, 2025
Currency
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
USD/INR
88.70
88.79
88.6850
88.735
Forward premium (%) as on 07th October , 2025
Periods
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
12 Month
Premium
1.99/2.10
2.01/2.06
2.14/2.16
2.23/2.24
USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)
(Updated as on 08th October 2025@ 09.00am)
Cash/Tom: 0.10/1.25 Cash/Spot:0.20/2.50
Tom/Spot: 0.10/1.25 Spot/Next: 0.50/3.50
Cash Date: 08.10.2025
Tom Date: 09.10.2025
Spot Date: 10.10.2025
Outlook for the day 08th October, 2025: Rupee expected to trade in range of 88.60 to 88.85
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (07th October 2025)
CURRENCY
GBP
1.3484
1.3487
1.3389
1.3422
EUR
1.1712
1.1716
1.1647
1.1655
AUD
0.6612
0.6624
0.6577
0.6579
JPY
150.33
152.04
150.22
151.90
CHF
0.7946
0.7991
0.7944
0.7979
XAU
3961.48
3990.8
3940.19
3983.5459
Foreign Currencies
Updated:17:30 hrs.(12:00 GMT) on 07th October , 2025
USD/INR: 88.7850[FXIR]
Against
USD
INR
1 GBP =
1.3400
118.9619
1 EUR =
1.1662
103.5323
100 JPY =
150.90
58.8320
1 CHF =
0.7986
111.1664
1 AUD =
0.6586
58.4689
Precious Metals
Updated:17:30 hrs.(12:00 GMT) as on 06th October , 2025
Gold ($/oz)
3962.30
Silver ($/oz)
48.45
Stock Indices
Index Close
06th Oct
07th Oct
BSE Sensex
81790.12
81787.48
NSE Nifty
25077.65
25108.30
Dow Jones
46694.97
46602.98
NASDAQ
22941.67
22788.36
Major Economic Data Releases for the Day 08.10.2025
Date
Time (IST)
Region
Description
08.10.2025
06.30PM
NZD
Official Cash Rate
RBNZ Rate Statement
11.30PM
FOMC Meeting Minutes
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