Last Updated on: 21/05/2024
TODAY: TUESDAY, 21th May, 2024
USD/INR:
INR likely to open around 83.30/35
Dollar is weak and US yields lower, after a broadly in-line CPI and weaker retail sales data triggered hopes of rate cuts yet again. Dollar Index is at 104.56, with EUR at 1.0860, GBP at 1.2705 and JPY at 156.52. US 10y is at 4.4%. Equities rose in the US last week, buoyed by the favourable data which raised the rate cut probability. DOW jumped 0.9%, while S&P 500 shot up 1.2% due to the tech stock bounce. While Indian equity market was closed yesterday, they are expected to open strong following the global data.
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:
USD:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) begins the week on a quiet note, trading at 104.25, registering negligible changes despite the recent soft performances in data. The Federal Reserve (Fed) still showcases caution regarding premature easing as financial conditions continue to loosen.
The US economy exhibits signs of unyielding stability, despite recent data revealing some underperformance. The Fed, nonetheless, remains vigilant, hesitant to resort to premature easing as the financial conditions persistently ease. Inflation and Retail sales data from April disappointed last week, and markets will set their sight on S&P data later this week to gain more insights into the US economy’s health.
EUR/USD EUR/USD eased back from 1.0880 on Monday as talking points from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials weighed on otherwise quiet market flows. Broader markets are keenly anxious for signs of a rate cut from the Fed, but central planners continue to force down expectations with a tricky inflation outlook hobbling the Fed’s options on rate moves.
Tuesday promises more of the same, with a raft of Fed officials due to provide speeches throughout the day, while European traders will be looking ahead to an appearance from the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. European Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures are due later in the week, with US Home Sales, PMIs, and Durable Goods Orders all due in the back half of the trading week.
GBP:
Gold
Gold price extended its gains on Monday, yet it trades slightly below the all-time high of $2,450 reached during the Asian session amid increasing expectations that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, might ease policy during 2024. The XAU/USD trades at $2,433, up 0.80%.
Market sentiment is a mixed bag, though slightly positive, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 gaining, while the Dow Jones is almost flat. This and last week’s softer-than-expected consumer inflation report in the United States (US) boosted bets that the Fed could slash borrowing costs as soon as September, according to CME FedWatch Tool data.
Odds that the Fed would cut rates by 25 bps in September are at 76%. Investors have begun to price in two cuts toward the end of the year, which would leave the fed funds rate at 4.75%-5.00%.
USD/INR as on 17th May, 2024*
Currency
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
USD/INR
83.49
83.4975
83.3250
83.3350
Forward premium (%) as on 17th May , 2024*
Periods
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
12 Month
Premium
1.09/1.23
1.22/1.31
1.37/1.42
1.70/1.72
*20.05.2024 was a market holiday due to general election in mumbai
USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)
(Updated as on 21th May 2024, @ 09.00am)
Cash/Tom: 0.10/0.70 Cash/Spot:0.30/2.10
Tom/Spot: 0.20/1.40 Spot/Next: 0.60/2.25
Cash Date: 21.05.2024
Tom Date: 22.05.2024
Spot Date: 23.05.2024
Outlook for the day 21th May 2024
Rupee expected to trade in range of 83.30-83.50
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (20th May, 2024)
CURRENCY
GBP
1.2699
1.2725
1.2682
1.2704
EUR
1.0864
1.0884
1.0852
1.0855
AUD
0.6692
0.6709
0.6660
0.6667
JPY
155.60
156.30
155.47
156.24
CHF
0.9092
0.9108
0.9077
0.9104
XAU
2414.52
2449.89
2407.08
2425.11
Foreign Currencies
Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) on 20th May, 2024
USD/INR: 83.34 [FXIR]
Against
USD
INR
1 EUR =
1.0860
90.5072
1 GBP =
1.2695
105.8001
100 JPY =
155.76
53.5054
1 AUD =
0.6683
55.6961
1 CHF =
0.9096
91.6227
Precious Metals
Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) as on 20th May, 2024
Gold ($/oz)
2444.35
Silver ($/oz)
31.80
Stock Indices
Index Close
17th May, 2024
20th May, 2024
BSE Sensex
73917.03
NSE Nifty
22466.10
Dow Jones
40003.59
39806.77
NASDAQ
16685.97
16794.87
Major Economic Data Releases for the Day
Date
Region
Time (IST)
Description
21.05.2024
Canada
6.00 pm
CPI m/m
Median CPI y/y
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