Last Updated on: 03/10/2025
TODAY Friday, 03rd October, 2025
USD/INR:
The Indian rupee is anticipated to face a difficult session on Friday, with most traders predicting that the central bank will likely intervene to prevent the currency from hitting a new all-time low.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee USDINR will open flat-to-slightly weaker versus the U.S. dollar compared to Wednesday's close of 88.69. India financial markets were shut on Thursday.
The rupee has been pressured in recent weeks by relentless dollar demand from importers, with sentiment remaining firmly skewed against the currency amid equity outflows and U.S.-India trade frictions.
The Reserve Bank of India has been stepping in to ensure the rupee’s decline remains orderly. Central bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra reiterated earlier this week that the RBI is not defending any particular level of the currency and is instead focused on containing volatility and keeping moves measured.
The RBI support is "keeping things calm" for now, a currency trader at a bank said. However, overall sentiment remains weak and the market wants to test the downside, he added.
Currency traders are closely watching the 88.80 level, the lifetime low for the rupee hit on Monday. With broad dollar demand keeping the pressure on, this level is seen a key marker for potential intervention or a pause in the currency’s slide.
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:
USD:
Asian currencies and the dollar remained muted on Friday, extending a week of subdued performance amid concerns over the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, while the Japanese yen was set for a sharp weekly gain on safe-haven demand.
The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, traded flat in Asia hours.
The U.S. government entered its third day of shutdown on Friday, as lawmakers failed to reach a funding agreement. This impasse has led to the suspension of key economic data releases, including the highly anticipated September nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for Friday.
The shutdown’s impact is compounded by recent weak economic reports, such as the ADP private payrolls data, which showed a surprising drop of 32,000 jobs in September.
This has led markets to anticipate Federal Reserve rate cuts, with futures pricing in nearly 50 basis points of easing by year-end.
“We could see a longer tail effect from this ADP print, given uncertainty around the payrolls release and general data silence, which limits directional catalysts in FX,” ING analysts said in a note.
While the U.S. dollar remains under pressure due to expectations of Fed easing, most Asian currencies have been largely muted this week.
GBP/USD:
The GBP/USD pair posts modest gains around 1.3435 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) as the US job market slows down and the government enters a shutdown. The US September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will not be published in light of the ongoing federal shutdown, while the ISM Services PMI, and the final S&P Global Services PMI should be released later on Friday.
Signs of a weakening US job market support the case for more interest rate cuts by the Fed in the remainder of the year, which provides some support to the Greenback. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have almost fully priced in that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to the 3.75%-4.00% range in the policy meeting later this month.
EUR/USD:
EUR/USD shows marginal gains on Friday, trading at the 1.1715 area at the time of writing. The pair has been moving in a choppy and volatile manner for the last few days, with the US in a data void, amid the closure of the federal government. In Europe, the Services PMI due later might provide some fundamental guidance for the Euro.
On Thursday, the US Challenger Job Cuts showed a decline in layoffs in September. Still, hiring plans also fell, showing their lowest level since 2009, which confirms that the labour market is deteriorating. The US Dollar, however, got a boost from Dallas Federal Reserve (Fed) President Lorie Logan, who cooled hopes of an October interest rate cut. Logan supported the 25 basis points (bps) easing in September, but showed concerns about lowering interest rates too fast and said that she is not eager to cut rates further at the next meeting.
Gold:
Gold remains confined in a narrow trading band through the first half of the European session as bulls now seem reluctant to place fresh bets amid still overbought conditions. Furthermore, investors seem unfazed by a partial US government shutdown, which is evident from a generally positive tone around the equity markets.
Dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and continue to act as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.
Traders ramped up bets that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs two more times this year following Wednesday's disappointing release of the US ADP Report on private-sector employment. This, in turn, fails to assist the USD to build on the overnight bounce from a one-week low, which, along with rising geopolitical tensions, backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move for the Gold price. Hence, any corrective pullback might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited ahead of speeches from influential FOMC members.
USD/INR as on 01st October, 2025
Currency
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
USD/INR
88.82
88.8225
88.645
88.665
Forward premium (%) as on 01st October, 2025
Periods
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
12 Month
Premium
2.19/2.33
2.11/2.13
2.20/2.24
2.31/2.33
USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)
(Updated as on 01st October 2025@ 09.00am)
Cash/Tom: 0.30/2.50 Cash/Spot:0.40/3.50
Tom/Spot: 0.10/1.00 Spot/Next: 0.10/1.25
Cash Date: 03.10.2025
Tom Date: 06.10.2025
Spot Date: 07.10.2025
Outlook for the day 01stOctober, 2025: Rupee expected to trade in range of 88.60 to 88.80
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (01st October 2025)
CURRENCY
GBP
EUR
1.3450
1.3527
1.3432
1.3477
AUD
1.1733
1.1778
1.1712
1.1729
JPY
147.90
148.22
146.57
147.05
CHF
0.7967
0.799
0.7925
0.7969
XAU
3895.09
3853.04
3865.4495
Foreign Currencies
Updated:17:30 hrs.(12:00 GMT) on 01st October, 2025
USD/INR: 88.6950[FXIR]
Against
USD
INR
1 GBP =
1.3471
119.4810
1 EUR =
1.1725
103.9949
100 JPY =
147.08
60.3039
1 CHF =
0.7979
111.1605
1 AUD =
0.6610
58.6274
Precious Metals
Updated:17:30 hrs.(12:00 GMT) as on 01st October, 2025
Gold ($/oz)
3878.10
Silver ($/oz)
47.3950
Stock Indices
Index Close
30th Sep
01st Oct
BSE Sensex
80267.62
80983.31
NSE Nifty
24611.10
24836.30
Dow Jones
46397.89
46441.10
NASDAQ
22660.01
22755.16
Major Economic Data Releases for the Day .2025
Date
Time (IST)
Region
Description
03.10.2025
06.35AM
BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks
Tentative
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Non-Farm Employment Change
Unemployment Rate
BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
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