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NRI Newsletter - Market News

Last Updated on: 10/10/2025

NRI Newsletter - Market News

TODAY, Friday, 10th October, 2025

 

USD/INR:

The Reserve Bank of India likely intervened in both the non-deliverable forwards (NDF) and local spot market to support the rupee on Friday as the South Asian currency was pinned near its all-time low.

Two traders told Reuters that the central bank had likely stepped in the NDF market before the local spot market opened at 9 a.m. IST while three other flagged that state-run banks were offering dollars in the local spot market, most likely on behalf of the RBI.

The rupee  USDINR was last at 88.79, just shy of its all-time low of 88.80 hit last week.

One trader said that it was unclear whether the central bank was active in the NDF market. Routine interventions near the 88.80 level have dented speculative interest in wagering against the currency.

On the day, a broadly stronger dollar  DXY hurt the rupee with analysts citing the drag from worries over ongoing U.S. trade tensions and the adverse trade impact of rising gold prices on India.

 

 

 MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:

USD:

Most Asian currencies kept to a tight range as the dollar headed for a strong weekly performance, while the Japanese yen stemmed some recent losses following strong producer inflation data. 

The yen was also aided by speculation over whether Tokyo will intervene in currency markets, after ministers expressed some discomfort over sustained selling of the currency. 

Weakness in the yen– which is a component of the DXY dollar index, was one of the key drivers of the greenback’s resilience this week, even as sentiment towards the U.S. economy remained weak amid an ongoing government shutdown.

Other Asian currencies kept to a tight range, and were sitting on a muted weekly performance amid pressure from a stronger dollar.  

 

 GBP/USD:

 

GBP/USD inches higher after three days of losses, trading around 1.3310 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair may appreciate as the Pound Sterling (GBP) may gain ground amid cautious sentiment surrounding the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy stance.

The BoE policymaker Catherine Mann said on Thursday that the monetary policy must remain restrictive for longer to create an environment conducive to growth. Mann also added that " Inflation remains persistent and the outlook for growth remains modest," per Reuters.

 

UK Chief Secretary to the Treasury James Murray said in a letter shared by the finance ministry on Wednesday that the administration would not permit agencies to use emergency funds to fund pay rises, aiming to restrict the wage spiral. “This prudent but tough approach to public spending is what will help build a stable economy," Murray added.

However, the GBP/USD pair may further lose ground as the US Dollar (USD) could receive further support from increased risk aversion, driven by the ongoing government shutdown. The US Senate remained deadlocked on legislation to end the government shutdown.

However, the Greenback may struggle due to prevailing dovish sentiment surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook. Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said on Friday that inflation has come in much less than she had feared. Daly further stated that the US central bank is projecting additional cuts in risk management.

 

EUR/USD:

The EUR/USD pair gains ground around 1.1575, snapping the four-day losing streak during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The potential upside for the major pair might be limited as the political turmoil in France weighed on the Euro (EUR). The preliminary reading of the U-Mich Consumer Sentiment report will be in the spotlight later on Friday.

French President Emmanuel Macron will name a new Prime Minister by Friday evening, per the Guardian. France’s longstanding political crisis deepened this week when the Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, resigned after 27 days in office. "In France, turmoil following the resignation of Prime Minister Lecornu has undermined EUR sentiment," said Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets.

Across the pond, the US government shutdown entered its tenth day on Friday as the Senate rejected funding bills from lawmakers that had the potential to bring the shutdown to an end. The shutdown has caused a delay in official US economic data, which complicates the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision-making on interest rates. Concerns over a prolonged US federal shutdown could undermine the Greenback and create a tailwind for the major pair. 

New York Fed President John Williams said on Thursday that he would be comfortable with cutting interest rates again. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted on Friday that inflation has come in much less than she had feared, adding that the US central bank is projecting additional cuts in risk management.

 

 

Gold:

Gold sticks to its negative bias for the second straight day, though it lacks follow-through selling. The USD retreats slightly from an over two-month peak and acts as a tailwind for the commodity. Fed rate cut bets, the US government shutdown, and geopolitical risks support the precious metal.

Bracing for the eighth consecutive weekly advance, Gold buyers look to resume the record-setting rally in Asian trading on Friday.

Markets remain risk-averse as the US government shutdown is seen stretching into the next week as the Senate wound up for a long weekend holiday, not back until Tuesday.

Further, declining Asian stocks and a pause in the US Dollar (USD) upsurge also lend support to the bullion as traders digest the latest dovish commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers.

New York (NY) Fed President John Williams told the NY Times on Thursday that he supports further interest rate cuts this year, per Reuters.

Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted early Friday that “the Fed is projecting additional cuts, but in risk management.”

Markets now eagerly await the release of the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data for fresh policy insights and trading impetus, in the wake of delayed key statistics and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s no-show on monetary policy.

Investors also take account of the latest report carried by the NY Times, citing that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) plans to publish the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report despite the ongoing government shutdown.

However, the inflation data is unlikely to be released on October 15, originally scheduled.

 

 

USD/INR as on 09th October, 2025

Currency

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

CLOSE

USD/INR

88.745

88.84

88.74

88.83

Forward premium (%) as on 09th  October , 2025

Periods

1 Month

3 Month

6 Month

12 Month

Premium

1.99/2.10

2.01/2.06

2.14/2.16

2.23/2.24

 

 

USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)

(Updated as on 09th October 2025@ 09.00am)

 

 Cash/Tom:   0.10/4.00        Cash/Spot:1.00/4.00

 Tom/Spot:            -               Spot/Next: 0.10/1.25

 

Cash Date:    10.10.2025

Tom Date:      14.10.2025

Spot Date:     14.10.2025

Outlook for the day 10th October, 2025: Rupee expected to trade in range of 88.60 to 88.85

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (09th October 2025)

CURRENCY

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

CLOSE

GBP

1.3403

1.3419

1.3277

1.3301

EUR

1.1623

1.1648

1.1541

1.1563

AUD

0.6585

0.6612

0.6538

0.6554

JPY

152.72

152.23

152.21

153.06

CHF

0.802

0.8075

0.800

0.806

XAU

4011.64

4057.79

3944.29

3975.0449

 

Foreign Currencies

Updated:17:30 hrs.(12:00 GMT) on 09th  October , 2025

USD/INR: 88.7875[FXIR]

Against

USD

INR

1 GBP    =

1.3369

118.70

1 EUR   =

1.1619

103.1622

100 JPY =

152.67

58.1565

1 CHF   =

0.8005

110.9151

1 AUD    =

0.6596

58.5642

 

Precious Metals

Updated:17:30 hrs.(12:00 GMT) as on 08th  October , 2025

Gold ($/oz)

4040.05

Silver ($/oz)

49.005

 

Stock Indices

 

Index Close

  08th  Oct

09th  Oct

BSE Sensex

81773.66

82172.10

NSE Nifty

25046.15

25181.80

Dow Jones

46601.78

46358.42

NASDAQ

22788.36

23024.63

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Major Economic Data Releases for the Day 08.10.2025

Date

Time (IST)

Region

Description

10.10.2025

06.00PM

CAD


Employment Change

 

10.10.2025

06.00PM

CAD

Unemployment Rate

10.10.2025

07.30PM

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

10.10.2025

07.30PM

USD

Prelim UoM Inflation ExpectationS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The views contained herein are those of individuals and not necessarily those of the Bank.  This is for information purpose only and no recommendations are intended.  While due care has been taken in preparation of this communication, IOB cannot be held responsible for any consequences of any decisions based on this information. Comments/Suggestions may be freely emailed to feddeal@iobnet.co.in