Last Updated on: 23/09/2025
TODAY Tuesday, 23rd September, 2025
USD/INR:
The Indian rupee is expected to remain under strain on Tuesday despite a dip in the dollar with steep U.S. tariffs and visa fee increases denting sentiment towards the Asian currency.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open marginally weaker from 88.3075 on Monday. At current levels, the rupee is only a shade away from the all-time low of 88.4550 marked two weeks back.
The rupee, already struggling under the weight of U.S. tariffs that are steeper than those faced by other Asian countries, is now contending with the fallout of President Donald Trump's decision to raise H-1B visa fees for new applications.
The move could weigh on India's IT services sector, slow remittances, and dampen overall investor sentiment, leaving the currency vulnerable to further weakness.
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:
USD:
Asian currencies and the U.S. dollar traded in narrow ranges on Tuesday as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later in the day, following a recent rate cut and forecast of more reductions.
The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was largely unchanged after falling in the previous session.
Investors remain guarded after the Fed’s rate decision last week, when it cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00-4.25%, its first cut since last December.
The decision was accompanied by the dot-plot projections, which now show most policymakers expecting two more rate cuts before year-end.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran, in a Monday speech, emphasised risks to the labor market and warned that current policy remains restrictive. He had voted for an outsized 50 bps cut last week.
Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Tuesday, while other Fed officials will follow in the coming days.
GBP/USD:
GBP/USD rebounded on Monday, snapping a three-day losing streak and chalking in a technical bounce from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as broad-market Greenback flows recede. Cable traders will face a double-header of Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey results on Tuesday, and business expectations are expected to take a slight hit on both sides of the Atlantic.
The UK’s Manufacturing PMI for September is forecast to hold steady at 47.0, but the Services PMI component is expected to backslide to 53.5 from 54.2. On the American side of the data docket, September’s PMI results are expected to retreat across the board, with the Manufacturing component set to decline sharply to 52.0 from 53.0. The US Services PMI survey is expected to show business sentiment contracted to 53.9 from 54.5.
EUR/USD:
EUR/USD rallies as the Greenback gets hammered, hovers around 1.1800 up 0.47% in the day as market players wait for clues of further easing by the Federal Reserve, as a flurry of officials would cross the wires during the week.
On Monday, Fed policymakers crossed the wires. Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic, St. Louis Fed Alberto Musalem, Richmond Fed Thomas Barkin, Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack and Fed Governor Stephen Miran delivered remarks, ahead of Chair Jerome Powell speech on Tuesday.
On the hawkish side lie Bostic, Musalem and Hammack, while Barkin tilted neutral. On the dovish front lies Miran, who amongst the comments he made, was that he sees the fed funds rate neutral rate at 2%.
Gold:
Gold looks to conquer $3,750 in the European session on Monday as the record rally extends. The US Federal Reserve's dovish signal, indicating that two more rate cuts by the end of this year, acts as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold alongside lingering geopolitical risks.
Having booked a fifth consecutive weekly advance, Gold stands tall near record highs of $3,7085 reached last Wednesday, despite the ongoing recovery stint in the US Dollar (USD).
Less dovish-than-expected US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy announcements and a fresh batch of upbeat US data continue to power the USD upswing, while traders keep taking profits off the table on their USD shorts, considering the recent sell-off as excessive.
Traders gear up for the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, due for release on Friday, for fresh directional impetus.
In the meantime, markets will pay close attention to a barrage of speeches from Fed officials for fresh hints on future interest rate cuts, especially after the Fed’s projections of two more rate cuts by the year-end and Chairman Jerome Powell’s measured approach on further easing.
Also, affecting the performance of the USD, and hence, Gold’s could be a deluge of Treasury auctions this week.
USD/INR as on 22nd September , 2025
Currency
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
USD/INR
88.16
88.345
88.1175
88.28
Forward premium (%) as on 22nd September , 2025
Periods
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
12 Month
Premium
1.89/2.16
2.04/2.13
2.15/2.20
2.34/2.36
USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)
(Updated as on 23rd September , 2025 @ 09.00am)
Cash/Tom: 0.10/1.00 Cash/Spot:0.20/2.00
Tom/Spot: 0.10/1.00 Spot/Next: 0.10/1.00
Cash Date: 23.09.2025
Tom Date: 24.09.2025
Spot Date: 25.09.2025
Outlook for the day 22nd September: Rupee expected to trade in range of 88.30 to 88.60
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (22nd September, 2025)
CURRENCY
GBP
1.3467
1.352
1.3449
1.3512
EUR
1.1744
1.1803
1.1725
1.1802
AUD
0.6586
0.6602
0.6573
0.6598
JPY
147.89
148.37
147.64
147.71
CHF
0.7942
0.7972
0.792
0.7922
XAU
3748.70
3682.79
3746.2075
Foreign Currencies
Updated:17:30 hrs.(12:00 GMT) on 22nd September 2025
USD/INR: 88.3125 [FXIR]
Against
USD
INR
1 GBP =
1.3500
119.2219
1 EUR =
1.1774
103.9791
100 JPY =
147.86
59.7271
1 CHF =
0.7938
111.2528
1 AUD =
0.6595
58.2421
Precious Metals
Updated:17:30 hrs.(12:00 GMT) as on 22nd September 2025
Gold ($/oz)
3719.70
Silver ($/oz)
43.7350
Stock Indices
Index Close
19th Sep
22nd Sep
BSE Sensex
82626.23
82159.97
NSE Nifty
25327.05
25202.35
Dow Jones
46315.27
46381.54
NASDAQ
22631.48
22788.98
Major Economic Data Releases for the Day 22.09.2025
Date
Time (IST)
Region
Description
23.09.2025
01.00PM
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
German Flash Services PMI
02.00PM
Flash Manufacturing PMI
Flash Services PMI
07.15PM
10.05PM
Fed Chair Powell Speaks
The views contained herein are those of individuals and not necessarily those of the Bank. This is for information purpose only and no recommendations are intended. While due care has been taken in preparation of this communication, IOB cannot be held responsible for any consequences of any decisions based on this information. Comments/Suggestions may be freely emailed to feddeal@iobnet.co.in