TODAY: MONDAY, 20^th May, 2024

USD/INR:

Market holiday due to general election in Mumbai.

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at 104.50, maintaining a neutral stance. Strong The overall Q2 growth backed by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious stance has offered mild gains to the US Dollar at the end of the week.

Despite some signs of softness, the US economy continues to exhibit robust growth in Q2 overall, directly influencing the cautious stance adopted by Fed officials. This reluctance to implement rate cuts seems to be keeping the Greenback afloat and limiting the downside.

EUR/USD  EUR/USD is edging higher toward 1.0900 early Monday, helped by a better market mood. The pair also draws support from softer US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields, awaiting Fedspeak amid light European trading. 

The EUR/USD pair trades on a stronger note around 1.0875 on Monday during the early Asian trading hours. The uptick in the major pair is bolstered by the softer Greenback. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Bostic, Barr, Waller, Jefferson, and Mester are scheduled to speak on Monday. Eurozone data highlight will be preliminary May PMI on Thursday.

Inflationary pressures eased in April, but the progress was unlikely to prompt the Fed to lower interest rates soon. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that he thinks the US central bank will need more data to gain confidence on whether inflation is steadily falling towards 2%. Furthermore, several Fed officials emphasized their cautious stance to hold rates higher for longer. 

GBP:

The GBP/USD pair extends its gains for the second consecutive session, trading around 1.2710 during the Asian hours on Monday. A weaker US Dollar (USD) supports the GBP/USD pair. April data indicated that US consumer inflation had slowed to 0.3%, raising expectations for potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate reductions in 2024. However, the US Fed maintains a cautious stance regarding inflation and the possibility of rate cuts in 2024.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve delivering a 25 basis-point rate cut in September has slightly increased to 49.0%, up from 48.6% a week ago. This potential easing of monetary policy by the central bank could undermine the US Dollar and bolster the GBP/USD pair.

Gold

Gold (XAU/USD) price continued to push higher this week and rose above $2,400 on Friday, gaining nearly 2% for the week. Investors will continue to scrutinize comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials next week and look for fresh hints on the timing of the policy pivot in the minutes of the April 30-May 1 meeting.

Gold started the new week under bearish pressure and lost nearly 1% on Monday. In the absence of fundamental drivers, however, XAU/USD’s action looked to be a technical correction following the upsurge seen in the second half of the previous week.

The data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed on Tuesday that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.2% on a yearly basis in April. This reading followed the 1.8% increase recorded in March and came in line with the market expectation. The immediate reaction to this data caused the US Dollar (USD) to weaken and allowed Gold to regain its traction. While speaking at the Foreign Bankers' Association's Annual General Meeting later in the day, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the PPI data was mixed and reiterated that the restrictive policy may take longer than expected to bring inflation down. These comments helped the USD limit its losses and capped XAU/USD’s upside.

USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)

(Updated as on 20^th May 2024, @ 09.00am)

 Market holiday due to general election in Mumbai.

 Cash/Tom:                                      Cash/Spot:

 Tom/Spot:                                       Spot/Next:  

Cash Date:  

Tom Date:    

Spot Date:    

Outlook for the day 20^th May 2024

It’s a market holiday due to general election in Mumbai.

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (17^th May, 2024)

Foreign Currencies

Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) on 17^th May, 2024

Precious Metals

Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) as on 17^th May, 2024

Stock Indices

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